Pfizer due to Lipitor patient expiry in 2010 had a projected loss of sales of 7.8 billion dollars, Takeda a potential loss in 2011 of 3.1 billion dollars due to Actos expiration, Astra Zeneca 5.9 billion dollars in 2011 due to Nexium and all other Big Pharma has a major blockbuster expiration in the period between 2010 and 2012.
IMS is stating that the Patent Cliff will has an effect on total sales on between 2010 and 2012 exceeding 80 billion dollars.
Companies are reacting to this effect through the adoption of downsizing their workforce in order to maintain a sustainable level of Ebit. However there are also other strategies such as the enlargement of product portfolio in the actual therapeutic areas, the introduction of products in new therapeutic areas, push in diversification and, R&D and production efficiency.
The biggest risk companies are facing is the sterile pipeline due to the big increase in the cost of R&D. The R&D and production count on 50% of total cost of product, in 2003 there is a study the calculates the total cost of developing a new molecule in 800 million dollars, however this number has grown in the period 2005-2010 to 1,2 billion dollar.
So we honestly think how companies should invest in R&D on one side, and production efficiency on the other. Big Pharma should to reach the same competitiveness that “generics” companies has gained through cost leadership that has lead their projected CAGR of around 9% in the period 2008-2013 versus a 5.5% of the total Pharmaceutical market in the 2009-2014.
Sector drivers (KPDs) indicators (KPIs) have to be totally reviewed. This is the challenge involving SDG - Healthcare & Life Science, both on a local andd international level. Big jumps, big spaces ... even for growth!